International Journal of Education and Management Studies

H. M. Swamy ¹, Sanjay ¹, Krishan Yadav ¹

Affiliations
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, IN

Abstract

After introduction of cocoa in early half of 20th century, it gained momentum in late l990s only. Though the growth rates in area, production, export quantity and value were heartening, the actual situation of Indian export sector of cocoa products was disheartening. The paper attempts to quantify the changing structure of Indian cocoa products exports. Data for analysis was taken for a period of 16 years from 2000-01 to 2016-17. The Markov chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major cocoa markets. The major Indian cocoa export markets were categorized as stable market (USA, China, & others) and unstable markets (Singapore, Netherland) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The major export markets for Indian cocoas were USA (14.9%), Nepal(11.6%),China(7.71%), Netherland (6.94%)and Singapore (5.06%). The holistic conclusion leads to the need of emphasizing on productivity enhancing research, measures to stabilize existing markets and tapping other markets section for improvement in this sector.

Keywords

Markov Chain, Cocoa Products, Export Direction, Structural Change.

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Sanjay ¹, H. M. Swamy ¹, Sunita Yadav ¹, Krishan Yadav ¹

Affiliations
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, Haryana, IN

Abstract

To access the growth and structural changes taking place in pulses area, production, productivity and trade aspects this analysis was carried out for a period of 10 years ranging from 2007-08 to 2016-17. It was done by calculating compound and simple growth statistics and by developing separate transitional matrix for exports and imports. Results regarding area, production, productivity, collective quantity and value of exports exhibited 1.88 percent, 3.63 percent, 1.71 percent,5.45 percent and 3.23 percent rate of compound growth rate respectively. Markov Chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major pulses export markets of Indian pulses and nations importing pulses to India. The major Indian pulses export markets were categorized as stable market (UAE) and unstable markets (Pakistan & Saudi Arab) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The import transition matrix also brought forward Canada and Myanmar as most trusted and Australia & USA as most unstable suppliers of Indian pulses imports. In conclusion, the growth in production (3.63 %) of the world's largest producer was far behind the simultaneous growth in import quantity (17.12%).

Keywords

Markov, Pulses, Export Direction, Structural Change.

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H. M. Swamy ¹, U. K. Sharma ¹, V. P. Luhach ¹, Joginder Malik ², D. S. Dahiya ³, Ram Niwas ⁴

Affiliations
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, CCS HAU, Hisar, Haryana, IN
2 Department of Agricultural Extension, CCS HAU, Hisar, Haryana, IN
3 Department of Horticulture, CCS HAU, Hisar, Haryana, IN
4 Department of Sat & Physics, CCS HAU, Hisar, Haryana, IN

Abstract

After the independence Indian agriculture focused mainly on the food security issues targeting more of food rains, but in the recent decades Indian agriculture able to meet food demand and became net food grain exporter, this was achieved from technology called green revolution, till then agriculture in India was of subsistence in nature but in the recent decades agricultural concern shifted from food grain crops to commercial or non-food grain crops to meet economic and financial demand of farmers. The results of the analysis indicated that Southern region witnessed composite entropy index value crossing 50 per cent in case of cereals (0.63) and total crop sector (0.62) during 2005-17 periods. While, Western region revealed an average of five periods composite entropy index of 0.53, 0.52 and 0.51 in case of total food grains, oilseeds and total crop sector. Northern region shown significant improvement in diversification index from 0.27 to 0.41 during 1955-65 to 1985-95. Thereafter, downfall in the diversification index was noticed. Exactly the reverse trend was seen in case of pulses and oilseeds. Commercial, fiber crops and over all crop sector revealed consistent increase in diversification index from 0.16 to 0.32, 0.21 to 0.29 and 0.40 to 0.49. In the eastern region cereals and pulses drawn the significant increase in diversification index value from 0.35 to 0.49 and 0.42 to 0.54 during study period. North eastern region all crop groups have showcased remarkable progress in terms of diversification index which was 0.24 to 0.46 in cereals, 0.01 to 0.47 in pulses, 0.24 to 0.46 in total food grains, 0.06 to 0.42 in oilseeds, 0.10 to 0.19 in commercial crops, 0.12 to 0.34 in fiber crops and 0.41 to 0.43 during study period. At all India level composite entropy index for cereals, pulses, oilseeds and fiber crops have shown a slight improvement, but commercial and over all crop sector have witnessed significant improvement having diversification value of 0.22 to 0.46 and 0.42 to 0.51 for commercial and overall crop sectors, respectively. Thereby, clarifying a clear message of diversification going on towards commercial crops, at the same time maintaining area under other crops as well, this might be due to increased cropping intensity and other such factors.

Keywords

Crop Diversification, Composite Entropy Index, Temporal, Spatial.

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